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What are the amplitudes of natural climate variations on timescales of several years to millennia and how do patterns of climate variability vary in time and space?

A quantitative assessment of natural climate variability over a wide range of time scales is a prerequisite to detect a potential human impact on climate. By means of an integrated analysis of quantitative climate-proxy data INTERDYNAMIC will contribute significantly to this detection problem.

At interannual timescales, climate variability is dominated by so-called modes, such as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) or the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Whether or not future climate change will lead to a weakening or intensification of these modes is currently not well known. Through a combination of paleoclimate records and realistic climate-model simulations, INTERDYNAMIC will contribute to a better understanding of the long-term evolution of these modes.

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