The project CaribClim will identify forcing mechanisms of seasonality and interannual to centennial climate variability in the Caribbean region during the Holocene, by analysing fossil corals from Bonaire and stalagmites from Cuba and Barbados, combined with climate model simulations. Based on oxygen isotope and Sr/Ca variations in corals, sub-seasonally resolved reconstructions of changes in both hydrologic balance and temperature at the sea surface will be generated for specific time intervals. Based on oxygen isotope variations in stalagmites, reconstructions of summer rainfall intensity in near-decadal resolution will be generated over several millennia. State-of-the-art climate models will be used to simulate Holocene climate evolution over several decades to millennia. Simulations of the hydrologic cycle (oxygen isotopes) and surface temperature will identify forcing mechanisms responsible for changes in seasonality and interannual to centennial climate observed in the marine and terrestrial archives, which will be accurately dated by the ²³⁰Th/U method. The approach will quantify the natural range of climate on these timescales, and will unravel the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and variations in insolation and Atlantic thermohaline circulation in the observed changes. This will contribute to successful predictions of future Caribbean climate.

Quantitative and semi-quantitative paleo-temperature and paleo-hydrology reconstructions (seasonality, interannual to centennial variability), U-series dating, coupled climate modelling (including oxygen isotopes)